December 9, 2019

The U.S. consumer continues to be one of the bright spots in the global economy.  Indeed, U.S. consumers continue to spend as if they have plenty of money, and they do.  The purchasing power of consumers continues to rise in record-setting territory.  Similarly, the U.S. consumer debt service ratio, that is the level of debt payments comp...

February 26, 2018

The good news continues to roll in for the global economy. As we discussed at last week’s investor conference, one of the most prominent features of the current global expansion is its breadth, as almost every part of the world is growing. However, the most recent forecasts for global growth had a new feature, ‘acceleration.’ For example,...

October 14, 2017

In recent weeks the markets have exhibited rocky performance, and emerging markets have played a significant role in the volatility. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, an emerging market (also known as a developing market) refers to the economy of a country that is less developed than that of a developed country or region but is w...

October 10, 2017

Barring a late year sell-off, 2017 will be another year of positive returns and historically low volatility. Overall the world’s economy seems to be humming along and there are few indications that volatility will pick up in the short-term. Yet it is important to remember that late cycle stability is an easy period to become complacent, t...

August 20, 2017

As our economy continues its record run, one of the things we’re keeping an eye on is the probabilities of different economic outcomes going forward. When it comes to developing probabilities for different scenarios, one of the key statistical concepts economists utilize are confidence intervals.

Confidence intervals measure the probabilit...

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